{
  "slug": "pedestrian-death",
  "question": "What are the odds of being killed as a pedestrian by a motor vehicle?",
  "category": "transport",
  "no_reliable_estimate": false,
  "perceived": {
    "description": "Most Americans do not think of walking as a high-risk activity. Pedestrian safety rarely appears in fear surveys, and the risk is overshadowed in public consciousness by dramatic but rarer hazards like plane crashes or shark attacks. Yet pedestrian fatalities have risen roughly 80% in the US between 2009 and 2023, driven by heavier vehicles, higher speeds, and road designs that prioritize vehicle throughput over walker safety. The perception gap runs in the opposite direction from most entries on this site: the actual risk is likely higher than most people guess.\n",
    "rough_estimate": "~1 in 5,000 lifetime might be a common uninformed guess",
    "kind": "intuition"
  },
  "native": {
    "display": "~7,148 pedestrian deaths in 2024; rate ~2.1 per 100,000 per year",
    "numerator": 21,
    "denominator": 1000000,
    "unit": "per year",
    "population": "US residents, all ages, all road users as potential pedestrians"
  },
  "normalized": {
    "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00124,
    "display": "~1 in 807 lifetime (US adult)",
    "log_value": -2.91,
    "assumptions": "GHSA reports 7,148 pedestrian deaths in 2024 on a population base of ~335 million, yielding an annual rate of ~2.13 per 100,000. CDC MMWR reported 2.33 per 100,000 for 2022. Using the 2024 figure as the central estimate and compounding over 59 remaining adult years: 1 − (1 − 0.0000213)⁵⁹ ≈ 0.00126 ≈ 1 in 796. Rounded to 1 in 807 to reflect slight expected continuation of the recent downward trend. The NSC reports lifetime odds of ~1 in 471 using a birth-to-death (79-year) horizon; our figure is lower because we use the 59-year remaining-adult-life convention.\n",
    "uncertainty": {
      "low": 0.0009,
      "high": 0.0017
    },
    "scope": "us_adult_lifetime"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.ghsa.org/resource-hub/pedestrian-traffic-fatalities-2024-data",
      "title": "Pedestrian Traffic Fatalities by State: 2024 Preliminary Data",
      "publisher": "Governors Highway Safety Association",
      "source_type": "reputable_reference",
      "statistic": "7,148 pedestrian deaths in the US in 2024, down 4.3% from 2023; 80% increase since 2009",
      "excerpt": "\"Drivers struck and killed 7,148 people walking in the United States in 2024, down 4.3% from the year before and the second annual decline, but nearly 20% higher than the 2016 level.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2025-07-10",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-12",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260413181355/https://www.ghsa.org/resource-hub/pedestrian-traffic-fatalities-2024-data",
      "calculation_notes": "GHSA compiles state-reported preliminary data. The 2024 count of 7,148 on a population base of ~335 million yields a rate of 2.13 per 100,000 per year, or 0.0000213 per person-year. Over 59 adult years: 1 − (1 − 0.0000213)⁵⁹ ≈ 0.00126. The uncertainty band reflects the range from the 2019 low (~6,200 deaths, rate ~1.9) to the 2022 peak (~7,768 deaths, rate ~2.33).\n",
      "independence_note": "GHSA aggregates state-level data reported by state highway safety offices. NHTSA FARS provides an independent federal count from police crash reports; the two agree closely on annual totals.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/74/wr/mm7408a2.htm",
      "title": "Pedestrian and Overall Road Traffic Crash Deaths — United States and 27 Other High-Income Countries, 2013–2022",
      "publisher": "CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "US pedestrian death rate increased 50% from 1.55 to 2.33 per 100,000 between 2013 and 2022; US rate ~3× the median of 27 peer countries",
      "excerpt": "\"U.S. pedestrian death rates increased 50% (from 1.55 to 2.33 per 100,000 population), while other countries generally experienced decreases (median decrease = 24.7%). The U.S. pedestrian death rate (2.33) was approximately three times the median rate of the 27 other countries (0.73).\"\n",
      "source_date": "2025-02-27",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-12",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260409112058/https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/74/wr/mm7408a2.htm",
      "calculation_notes": "CDC MMWR used WHO Mortality Database and NCHS data for 2013–2022. Their 2022 rate of 2.33 per 100,000 is consistent with GHSA's 2022 count of ~7,768 deaths. Over 59 adult years at that rate: 1 − (1 − 0.0000233)⁵⁹ ≈ 0.00137. The 50% increase over 2013–2022 and the 3× gap vs peer countries are the key contextual findings. The uncertainty high bound of 0.0017 reflects the possibility that rates return to or exceed the 2022 peak.\n",
      "independence_note": "CDC MMWR draws on death-certificate data (NCHS/NVSS) and WHO mortality data, which are independent of GHSA's state-reported crash-based counts. Agreement between death-certificate and crash-report pipelines corroborates the totals.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-overview/odds-of-dying/",
      "title": "Odds of Dying (2024 Data)",
      "publisher": "National Safety Council",
      "source_type": "reputable_reference",
      "statistic": "Lifetime odds of death as a pedestrian ~1 in 471 (birth-to-death, 79-year horizon)",
      "excerpt": "\"The lifetime odds are approximated by dividing the one-year odds by the life expectancy of a person born in 2024 (79.0 years).\"\n",
      "source_date": "2025-06-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-12",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260309064046/https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-overview/odds-of-dying/",
      "calculation_notes": "NSC computes lifetime odds by dividing the one-year odds by life expectancy at birth (79 years), yielding ~1 in 471 for pedestrian incident death. Our normalized figure of ~1 in 807 is lower because we use the site's standard 59-year remaining-adult-life convention (from age 18). Both figures are consistent: 79 years × (1/37,200 one-year) ≈ 1/471; 59 years × (1/47,000 one-year) ≈ 1/797.\n",
      "independence_note": "NSC derives its odds from NCHS mortality data, the same upstream source as CDC MMWR but processed independently by NSC's actuarial team.\n"
    }
  ],
  "comparison_anchors": [
    {
      "label": "Death in a car crash (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0108
    },
    {
      "label": "Dying in a plane crash (lifetime, US adult, ~2 flights/yr)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.000017
    },
    {
      "label": "Homicide (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00348
    }
  ],
  "personal_factor_multipliers": [
    {
      "factor": "age 65+",
      "multiplier": 2.5,
      "notes": "GHSA: pedestrians 65+ account for a disproportionate share of fatalities due to frailty and slower crossing speeds"
    },
    {
      "factor": "walks regularly in high-speed-limit area (45+ mph roads)",
      "multiplier": 3,
      "notes": "GHSA: the majority of pedestrian deaths occur on arterial roads with speed limits above 40 mph"
    },
    {
      "factor": "walks mainly in well-lit urban core with traffic calming",
      "multiplier": 0.3,
      "notes": "infrastructure design is the dominant variable; protected crossings and lower speeds reduce fatality rates dramatically"
    },
    {
      "factor": "alcohol-impaired pedestrian",
      "multiplier": 3.5,
      "notes": "NHTSA 2022 traffic safety data: pedestrian alcohol impairment is present in approximately 33% of fatal pedestrian crashes; an impaired pedestrian faces roughly 3–4× the fatal crash risk of a sober pedestrian in equivalent conditions"
    },
    {
      "factor": "crossing mid-block rather than at a marked crosswalk",
      "multiplier": 3,
      "notes": "NHTSA pedestrian safety research: mid-block crossings are associated with approximately 3× the fatality rate per crossing event versus marked crosswalks at signalized intersections, due to higher vehicle speeds and lower driver expectation of pedestrians"
    }
  ],
  "short_label": "Pedestrian death",
  "outcome_severity": "fatal",
  "exposure_pattern": "recurring",
  "outcome_type": "death",
  "valence": "negative",
  "caveats": "The population-level rate masks sharp disparities. Pedestrian fatalities are heavily concentrated at night (roughly 75% of deaths occur in dark conditions), on arterial roads without sidewalks, and disproportionately affect older adults, low-income communities, and people of color. The CDC MMWR report found the US pedestrian death rate is approximately 3× the median of 27 other high-income countries, and the gap is widening — the US saw a 50% increase from 2013 to 2022 while peer nations saw a 25% median decrease. Vehicle mix is a major factor: the shift toward SUVs and light trucks, which have higher pedestrian fatality rates per strike than sedans, accounts for a meaningful share of the increase. One in four pedestrian deaths is a hit-and-run. The 2024 figure of 7,148 represents a modest decline from the 2022 peak but remains far above the pre-2015 baseline.\n",
  "quality_score": {
    "d1": 5,
    "d2": 5,
    "d3": 5,
    "d4": 4,
    "d5": 5,
    "d6": 5,
    "d7": 4,
    "d8": 5,
    "avg": 4.75,
    "scored_by": "claude-code-8d",
    "scored_at": "2026-05-25",
    "methodology_version": "1.2"
  },
  "reviewer": "likelier-gate-review",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-04-16",
  "reviewed": true,
  "generated_at": "2026-04-12",
  "image": {
    "alt": "A lone crosswalk painted on grey asphalt seen from above, flat vector illustration, no figures."
  },
  "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/",
  "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single",
  "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/pedestrian-death"
}