{
  "slug": "intimate-partner-violence-lifetime",
  "question": "What are the odds of experiencing domestic violence?",
  "category": "crime",
  "tags": [
    "relationships"
  ],
  "no_reliable_estimate": false,
  "perceived": {
    "description": "Intimate partner violence is widely acknowledged as a problem in the abstract but chronically underestimated as a personal risk. Most adults do not consider themselves likely victims — domestic violence is mentally filed as something that happens in other households, other socioeconomic brackets, other cultures. Media framing reinforces this by treating individual cases as shocking aberrations rather than manifestations of a one-in-three baseline. In many countries, cultural norms further suppress risk perception by framing partner violence as a private family matter rather than a crime. No rigorous multi-country survey of perceived personal risk exists.\n",
    "kind": "intuition"
  },
  "native": {
    "display": "~27% of ever-partnered women aged 15-49 have experienced physical/sexual IPV in their lifetime (WHO 2023)",
    "numerator": 27,
    "denominator": 100,
    "unit": "lifetime prevalence among ever-partnered women",
    "population": "Global, ever-partnered women aged 15-49, WHO multi-country data 2000-2023"
  },
  "normalized": {
    "lifetime_us_adult": 0.27,
    "display": "~1 in 4 ever-partnered women globally experience physical/sexual IPV in a lifetime",
    "log_value": -0.57,
    "assumptions": "WHO's Violence Against Women Prevalence Estimates 2023 report, analysing data from 168 countries between 2000 and 2023, finds that approximately 27% of ever-partnered women aged 15-49 have experienced physical and/or sexual intimate partner violence in their lifetime. The November 2025 update puts the absolute number at 840 million women. This is a directly measured lifetime prevalence from population-based surveys, not an extrapolation from annual rates. The 27% figure is for physical and/or sexual violence only; including psychological/emotional abuse raises prevalence substantially. The lifetime_us_adult field carries the global figure for schema compatibility under the global_adult_lifetime scope. Regional variation is substantial: from ~20% in the Western Pacific to ~33% in Africa and South-East Asia. The figure covers women only; male IPV victimization (estimated at ~1 in 9 to 1 in 7 in US data) is not captured in the WHO global estimates. Uncertainty band: low end reflects high-income-country estimates (~20%), high end reflects highest-prevalence regions (~35%) plus underreporting adjustment. Uncertainty band widened from the raw regional range (20–33%) to 15–45%: the low end accounts for the possibility that high-income- country rates are themselves overstated by retrospective survey design; the high end reflects the inclusion of psychological/emotional abuse, which is documented to push overall VAW prevalence to 45–50% in some national surveys.\n",
    "uncertainty": {
      "low": 0.15,
      "high": 0.45
    },
    "scope": "subgroup_lifetime"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240116962",
      "title": "Violence Against Women Prevalence Estimates, 2023",
      "publisher": "World Health Organization (WHO)",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "27% of ever-partnered women aged 15-49 have experienced physical/sexual IPV globally",
      "excerpt": "\"Worldwide, almost one third (27%) of women aged 15-49 years who have been in a relationship report that they have been subjected to some form of physical and/or sexual violence by their intimate partner.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2025-11-19",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-24",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260318232738/https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240116962",
      "calculation_notes": "Primary global lifetime prevalence from WHO's most comprehensive report, synthesizing data from 168 countries (2000-2023). 27% of ever-partnered women = 0.27 lifetime prevalence. Used directly as lifetime_us_adult under global_adult_lifetime scope. Note: the lifetime_us_adult field carries a global ever-partnered-women figure, not a US-specific or all-adults figure, per the global_adult_lifetime scope.\n",
      "independence_note": "All three sources (report, press release, fact sheet) are WHO publications released on the same date drawing on the same underlying dataset. They provide different facets (full report, headline figures, regional breakdown) but are not independent data sources.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.who.int/news/item/19-11-2025-lifetime-toll--840-million-women-faced-partner-or-sexual-violence",
      "title": "Lifetime toll: 840 million women faced partner or sexual violence",
      "publisher": "World Health Organization (WHO)",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "840 million women globally have experienced partner or sexual violence; 316 million in the past 12 months",
      "excerpt": "\"Nearly 1 in 3 women – estimated 840 million globally – have experienced partner or sexual violence during their lifetime, a figure that has barely changed since 2000. In the last 12 months alone, 316 million women – 11% of those aged 15 or older – were subjected to physical or sexual violence by an intimate partner.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2025-11-19",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-24",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260503091618/https://www.who.int/news/item/19-11-2025-lifetime-toll--840-million-women-faced-partner-or-sexual-violence",
      "calculation_notes": "Press release accompanying the 2023 prevalence report. The \"nearly 1 in 3\" headline includes both IPV and non-partner sexual violence combined. The IPV-only figure is 27%; adding non-partner sexual violence brings the combined total to ~31%. The 12-month prevalence of 11% confirms ongoing incidence, not just historical accumulation.\n",
      "independence_note": "WHO press release accompanying source 1; same underlying dataset, not an independent data source.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/violence-against-women",
      "title": "Violence against women — Key facts",
      "publisher": "World Health Organization (WHO)",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "Prevalence ranges from 20% in Western Pacific to 33% in African and South-East Asian regions",
      "excerpt": "\"The prevalence estimates of lifetime intimate partner violence range from 20% in the Western Pacific, 22% in high-income countries and Europe and 25% in the WHO Regions of the Americas to 33% in the WHO African region, 31% in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region, and 33% in the WHO South-East Asia region.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2025-11-19",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-24",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260525095323/https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/violence-against-women",
      "calculation_notes": "Regional breakdown supporting the uncertainty band. Low end (0.20) anchored to Western Pacific estimate; high end (0.35) anchored slightly above the African/ South-East Asian peak of 33% to account for underreporting in the highest- prevalence regions. The 22% for high-income countries contextualizes the US- specific figure relative to the global average.\n",
      "independence_note": "WHO fact sheet drawing on the same prevalence report as sources 1 and 2; not an independent data source.\n"
    }
  ],
  "comparison_anchors": [
    {
      "label": "Sexual assault (lifetime, US adult, contact)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.34
    },
    {
      "label": "Stalking (lifetime, US women)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.162
    },
    {
      "label": "Homicide (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00348
    }
  ],
  "short_label": "Domestic violence",
  "myth_framing": "underrated",
  "outcome_severity": "serious_harm",
  "exposure_pattern": "recurring",
  "outcome_type": "mental_trauma",
  "valence": "negative",
  "caveats": "The WHO 27% figure covers physical and/or sexual violence by an intimate partner among ever-partnered women aged 15-49. It does not include psychological or emotional abuse, which would raise prevalence substantially. It also does not include male victims of IPV, who represent a significant minority of cases — CDC NISVS data estimate roughly 1 in 9 US men experience contact sexual violence, physical violence, or stalking by an intimate partner. The \"ever-partnered\" denominator excludes women who have never been in a relationship, which slightly inflates the rate compared to an all-women denominator. Regional variation is extreme: a woman in South-East Asia faces roughly 65% higher lifetime risk than one in the Western Pacific. Adolescent girls aged 15-19 already show 16% prevalence, indicating that the violence begins early. Underreporting remains the dominant measurement problem — in many settings, partner violence is normalized and not recognized as reportable violence by either the victim or the community.\n",
  "quality_score": {
    "d1": 4,
    "d2": 3,
    "d3": 5,
    "d4": 4,
    "d5": 4,
    "d6": 5,
    "d7": 3,
    "d8": 5,
    "avg": 4.125,
    "scored_by": "extracted-from-transcript",
    "scored_at": "2026-05-03",
    "methodology_version": "1.0"
  },
  "reviewer": "8d-eval-2026-05-16",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-05-16",
  "reviewed": true,
  "generated_at": "2026-04-24",
  "image": {
    "alt": "A closed door with a thin line of light underneath, flat vector editorial illustration, muted palette."
  },
  "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/",
  "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single",
  "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/intimate-partner-violence-lifetime"
}