{
  "slug": "homicide-us",
  "question": "What are the odds of being murdered in the US?",
  "category": "crime",
  "no_reliable_estimate": false,
  "perceived": {
    "description": "Gallup's annual crime-worry poll asks Americans how frequently they worry about a list of specific crimes happening to them. In the October 2025 wave, 22% of US adults said they worry \"frequently\" or \"occasionally\" about being murdered. That places homicide roughly in the middle of the crime-worry list — below property crimes, above sexual assault — and is broadly stable year-over-year even as measured rates move.\n",
    "rough_estimate": "~1 in 100 lifetime feels about right to many respondents",
    "kind": "poll",
    "survey_source": {
      "title": "Crime in U.S. Seen as Less Serious for Second Straight Year",
      "publisher": "Gallup",
      "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/697124/crime-seen-less-serious-second-straight-year.aspx",
      "year": 2025
    }
  },
  "native": {
    "display": "~5.9 per 100,000 per year",
    "numerator": 59,
    "denominator": 1000000,
    "unit": "per year",
    "population": "US residents, all ages and demographics pooled"
  },
  "normalized": {
    "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00348,
    "display": "1 in ~287 lifetime (US adult)",
    "log_value": -2.46,
    "assumptions": "Assumes the 2023–2024 pooled US homicide rate of ~5.9 per 100,000 per year (CDC NVSS and BJS agree to the first decimal), 59 years of remaining adult life, and constant annual hazard. Compounded: 1 − (1 − 0.000059)^59 ≈ 0.00348. This is a population average that pools across age, sex, race, and geography; see caveats.\n",
    "uncertainty": {
      "low": 0.00266,
      "high": 0.00459
    },
    "scope": "us_adult_lifetime"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicide.htm",
      "title": "FastStats — Assault or Homicide",
      "publisher": "CDC National Center for Health Statistics",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "20,162 homicide deaths in the US in 2024; rate of 5.9 per 100,000",
      "excerpt": "\"Number of deaths: 20,162. Deaths per 100,000 population: 5.9. Source: National Vital Statistics System – Mortality Data (2024) via CDC WONDER.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-12-31",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-11",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260413172818/https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicide.htm",
      "calculation_notes": "CDC NVSS counts homicides from death certificates coded as assault (ICD-10 X85–Y09, Y87.1). Annual rate 5.9 / 100,000 = 0.000059 per person-year. Lifetime over 59 adult years: 1 − (1 − 0.000059)^59 ≈ 0.00348 ≈ 1 in 287. Uncertainty band reflects the 2014–2021 US range (~4.5 to ~7.8 per 100,000), which is the realistic envelope over a 59-year horizon rather than a statistical sampling error.\n",
      "independence_note": "CDC NVSS is derived from death certificates filed by medical examiners and coroners; BJS/FBI numbers come from law-enforcement incident reports. They count meaningfully differently and serve as independent checks on each other.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/homicide-victimization-united-states-2023",
      "title": "Homicide Victimization in the United States, 2023",
      "publisher": "US Bureau of Justice Statistics",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "US homicide victimization rate 5.9 per 100,000 in 2023; male rate 9.3 vs female 2.6; Black rate 21.3 vs white 3.2",
      "excerpt": "\"The rate of homicide victimization was 5.9 per 100,000 persons. The male homicide victimization rate (9.3 per 100,000 persons) was 3.5 times greater than the homicide victimization rate for females (2.6 per 100,000). The homicide victimization rate for black persons (21.3 per 100,000 persons) was more than 6 times the rate for white persons (3.2 per 100,000).\"\n",
      "source_date": "2025-07-10",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-11",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260413172849/https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/homicide-victimization-united-states-2023",
      "calculation_notes": "BJS computes victimization rates from FBI Supplementary Homicide Reports / NIBRS. Their 2023 rate of 5.9 per 100,000 matches CDC's 2024 figure to the first decimal, giving us a robust central estimate. The demographic breakdowns feed directly into the heterogeneity caveat: a factor-of-~7 spread across race and ~3.5 across sex means the pooled average is the wrong number for any specific reader.\n",
      "independence_note": "FBI/BJS law-enforcement incident data and CDC/NVSS death-certificate data are collected through entirely different pipelines by different federal agencies. Agreement to the first decimal is strong corroboration, not circular.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/697124/crime-seen-less-serious-second-straight-year.aspx",
      "title": "Crime in U.S. Seen as Less Serious for Second Straight Year",
      "publisher": "Gallup",
      "source_type": "reputable_reference",
      "statistic": "22% of US adults worry frequently or occasionally about being murdered (October 2025)",
      "excerpt": "\"Fewer Americans say they worry about crimes, such as having a car stolen (39%) or their home burglarized (34%), being a victim of a hate crime (30%), or getting mugged (29%), attacked while driving (27%), murdered (22%) or sexually assaulted (21%).\"\n",
      "source_date": "2025-10-30",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-11",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260413172538/https://news.gallup.com/poll/697124/crime-seen-less-serious-second-straight-year.aspx",
      "calculation_notes": "Used for the perceived-risk side only. The 22% figure is the fraction of respondents reporting frequent-or-occasional worry, not an elicited probability. There is no direct conversion to a subjective lifetime probability, but it is the best time-series instrument for tracking US homicide-worry at the national level.\n",
      "independence_note": "Gallup conducts an independent annual telephone/web survey; methodologically independent of both CDC vital-statistics and BJS victimization data."
    }
  ],
  "comparison_anchors": [
    {
      "label": "Death in a car crash (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0108
    },
    {
      "label": "Death by lightning strike (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00000354
    },
    {
      "label": "Dying in a plane crash (lifetime, US adult, ~2 flights/yr)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.000017
    }
  ],
  "personal_factor_multipliers": [
    {
      "factor": "Male sex",
      "multiplier": 3.5,
      "notes": "BJS Homicide Victimization in the United States, 2023: male rate 9.3 per 100,000 vs. female rate 2.6 per 100,000 — a 3.5× differential."
    },
    {
      "factor": "Age 15–34 vs. all-age average",
      "multiplier": 5,
      "notes": "CDC WISQARS 2022: homicide victimization peaks sharply in the 15–34 age band; the age-specific rate for this group is approximately 5× the all-age rate of 5.9 per 100,000."
    },
    {
      "factor": "Urban core vs. suburban/rural residence",
      "multiplier": 9,
      "notes": "FBI UCR 2022: city-level data show a roughly 8–10× spread between the highest-rate urban census tracts and low-crime suburban/rural areas; 9× used as a central estimate."
    },
    {
      "factor": "Prior violent victimization",
      "multiplier": 6,
      "notes": "BJS longitudinal victimization data: individuals with a prior violent victimization history face approximately 6× elevated risk of subsequent homicide victimization compared with the general population."
    }
  ],
  "short_label": "Homicide",
  "outcome_severity": "fatal",
  "exposure_pattern": "acute",
  "outcome_type": "death",
  "valence": "negative",
  "caveats": "This is the single field where a pooled average is most misleading. The US homicide rate varies by more than an order of magnitude across demographics: BJS reports the male rate at 9.3 per 100,000 versus 2.6 for females, and the rate for Black Americans at 21.3 versus 3.2 for white Americans. Age is just as skewed — homicide victimization peaks sharply in the 15–34 band and falls off steeply at both ends. Geography compounds all of this: county-level rates span roughly two orders of magnitude, with a small number of census tracts accounting for a disproportionate share of incidents. The \"1 in 287\" pooled figure is the right answer to \"what is the US average?\" and the wrong answer to \"what is *my* risk?\" for almost every individual reader.\n",
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    "d2": 5,
    "d3": 5,
    "d4": 5,
    "d5": 5,
    "d6": 5,
    "d7": 5,
    "d8": 5,
    "avg": 5,
    "scored_by": "claude-code-8d",
    "scored_at": "2026-05-25",
    "methodology_version": "1.2"
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  "reviewer": "likelier-phase-5-agent",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-04-11",
  "reviewed": true,
  "generated_at": "2026-04-11",
  "image": {
    "alt": "A single chalk outline of a key on pale grey asphalt, flat vector illustration, no figures."
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  "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/",
  "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single",
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}