{
  "slug": "home-burglary",
  "question": "What are the odds of your home being burglarized?",
  "category": "crime",
  "tags": [
    "household"
  ],
  "no_reliable_estimate": false,
  "perceived": {
    "description": "Burglary sits near the top of property-crime anxiety. Home security systems are a multi-billion-dollar industry built on the image of a stranger forcing a lock at 3 a.m. while the family sleeps. News coverage and insurance advertisements reinforce the mental model of a perpetual, high-probability threat. Many homeowners assume that going a decade without a break-in is lucky, not typical. The 1987 BJS estimate that 72% of Americans would experience a burglary in their lifetime is still widely cited, though it was calculated from 1970s-era crime rates that were three to five times higher than today's.\n",
    "rough_estimate": "~30-50% lifetime chance",
    "kind": "intuition"
  },
  "native": {
    "display": "~2.9 residential burglaries per 1,000 households per year (police-reported)",
    "numerator": 29,
    "denominator": 10000,
    "unit": "per household per year (police-reported residential burglaries)",
    "population": "US households, 2024 FBI UCR data"
  },
  "normalized": {
    "lifetime_us_adult": 0.11,
    "display": "~11% lifetime probability of experiencing at least one burglary over a 40-year homeownership span (police-reported)",
    "log_value": -0.96,
    "assumptions": "The FBI Crime Data Explorer reported 405,776 residential burglaries in 2024 across ~140 million US households, yielding an annual police-reported rate of ~2.9 per 1,000 households. The NCVS (which captures unreported crime) historically estimates rates 2-4x higher; BJS reported ~11.7 per 1,000 households in 2019 for burglary/trespass combined. We use the FBI police-reported figure as the conservative base because it better reflects completed burglaries with actual loss, while NCVS includes attempted entries and trespass. Over a 40-year homeownership span (age 25-65), assuming independent annual trials at the 2024 rate: 1 - (1 - 0.0029)^40 ≈ 0.109, or ~11%. Using the higher NCVS-inclusive rate of ~0.007 (adjusted downward from 11.7/1,000 to account for post-2019 declines), the lifetime figure would be ~24%. The 11% estimate is conservative; the true figure including unreported burglaries is likely 15-25%. The 1987 BJS lifetime estimate of 72% was based on 1975-1984 NCVS rates that were 3-5x higher than current rates and is no longer applicable.\n",
    "uncertainty": {
      "low": 0.06,
      "high": 0.25
    },
    "scope": "us_adult_lifetime"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2024-reported-crimes-in-the-nation-statistics",
      "title": "FBI Releases 2024 Reported Crimes in the Nation Statistics",
      "publisher": "Federal Bureau of Investigation",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "779,542 total burglaries in 2024; rate of 229.2 per 100,000 residents; residential burglaries accounted for ~52% of the total",
      "excerpt": "\"The FBI reported 779,542 burglary offenses in 2024, a rate of 229.2 per 100,000 inhabitants, down from 253.3 per 100,000 in 2023 — a 9.5% year-over-year decline.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2025-09-30",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-22",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260426024116/https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2024-reported-crimes-in-the-nation-statistics",
      "calculation_notes": "779,542 total burglaries × 52% residential = ~405,776 residential burglaries. Divided by ~140 million US households = 2.9 per 1,000 households per year. Over 40 years: 1 - (1 - 0.0029)^40 = 0.109, or ~11% lifetime probability. The 2024 rate continues a long-term decline: the 2005 rate was 738.9 per 100,000, meaning burglary has fallen ~69% in rate over two decades.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/vdhb.pdf",
      "title": "Victimization During Household Burglary",
      "publisher": "Bureau of Justice Statistics, U.S. Department of Justice",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "28% of burglaries occurred while a household member was present; 7% involved violence; 38% of entries were through unlocked doors/windows",
      "excerpt": "\"A household member was present in roughly 28% of the 3.7 million average annual burglaries that occurred between 2003 and 2007. In about 7% of all household burglaries, a household member experienced some form of violent victimization. Simple assault (15%) was the most common form of violence when a resident was home.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2010-09-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-22",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260331202522/https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/vdhb.pdf",
      "calculation_notes": "BJS NCVS data (2003-2007 average): 3.7 million burglaries/year (including unreported). 28% occurred with someone home (\"hot burglary\") = ~1.04 million. Of those, 26% involved violence against a resident. 38% of all entries used no force (unlocked door/window). Of occupied burglaries, offenders entered through an unlocked (28%) or open (27%) door/window in 55% of cases. 65% of violent burglary offenders were known to the victim. These figures are from 2003-2007; current absolute numbers are lower due to the overall decline in burglary, but the proportional breakdowns (occupied vs unoccupied, forced vs unforced) are the most recent detailed data available.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/lifetime-likelihood-victimization-0",
      "title": "Lifetime Likelihood of Victimization",
      "publisher": "Bureau of Justice Statistics (Koppel, 1987)",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "72% lifetime probability of household burglary (based on 1975-1984 NCVS rates)",
      "excerpt": "\"Based on 1975-84 annual victimization rates and life tables, the lifetime likelihood of being a victim of a personal theft or household burglary was estimated at 72% for burglary.\"\n",
      "source_date": "1987-03-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-22",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260426201815/https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/lifetime-likelihood-victimization-0",
      "calculation_notes": "Koppel (1987) used 1975-1984 NCVS annual burglary rates (which ranged from ~60-80 per 1,000 households) and NCHS life tables. At those rates the 72% lifetime figure was mathematically sound. However, the NCVS burglary rate has fallen from ~63/1,000 (1994) to ~12/1,000 (2019) — a decline of over 80%. Recalculating with the 2024 FBI police-reported rate of 2.9/1,000 yields ~11% over 40 years. The 72% figure is included because it is still widely cited and shapes public perception, but it is no longer representative of current risk.\n"
    }
  ],
  "comparison_anchors": [
    {
      "label": "Death in a car crash (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0108
    },
    {
      "label": "Identity theft victimization (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.6
    },
    {
      "label": "Homicide victimization (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00348
    }
  ],
  "personal_factor_multipliers": [
    {
      "factor": "doors and windows left unlocked",
      "multiplier": 2.5,
      "notes": "38% of burglaries involve no forced entry (FBI UCR 2019); BJS found unlocked or open doors/windows were the entry point in 55% of occupied-home burglaries"
    },
    {
      "factor": "someone home during the burglary (hot burglary)",
      "multiplier": 0.4,
      "notes": "Only 28% of burglaries occur while a household member is present (BJS 2003-2007); burglars overwhelmingly prefer empty homes. However, hot burglaries carry a 26% chance of violence against the resident"
    },
    {
      "factor": "no one home (property unoccupied)",
      "multiplier": 1.4,
      "notes": "72% of burglaries target unoccupied homes; the base rate already includes both types, so the uplift for confirmed-empty homes is moderate"
    },
    {
      "factor": "visible alarm system or security cameras",
      "multiplier": 0.2,
      "notes": "83% of convicted burglars said they would avoid homes with visible security indicators; Rutgers study found 60% fewer break-in attempts at alarmed homes"
    },
    {
      "factor": "single female-headed household with children",
      "multiplier": 2.5,
      "notes": "BJS NCVS found this demographic had the highest occupied-home burglary rate at 22 per 1,000 households vs 4 per 1,000 for married couples without children"
    },
    {
      "factor": "high-burglary metro (e.g. Springfield IL, 1,036/100K)",
      "multiplier": 4.5,
      "notes": "Springfield IL's 2024 burglary rate was 1,036/100K — 4.5x the national average of 229/100K; conversely, Manchester-Nashua NH was 46/100K (0.2x)"
    },
    {
      "factor": "large dog in the household",
      "multiplier": 0.5,
      "notes": "Survey of 86 burglars identified a large, loud dog as a major deterrent; neighborhoods with higher dog ownership showed ~33% lower robbery rates"
    }
  ],
  "short_label": "Home burglary (global)",
  "myth_framing": "overrated",
  "outcome_severity": "moderate_harm",
  "exposure_pattern": "recurring",
  "outcome_type": "property",
  "valence": "negative",
  "caveats": "The FBI UCR data captures only police-reported burglaries; the NCVS victimization survey consistently estimates 2-4x more burglaries because many go unreported. The lifetime figure of ~11% uses the conservative FBI rate; including unreported burglaries would push it to 15-25%. The detailed breakdown of occupied vs unoccupied, forced vs unforced entry comes from BJS data covering 2003-2007 — the most recent report with that level of detail. Overall burglary rates have fallen substantially since then, but the proportional breakdowns are assumed to be roughly stable. The \"hot burglary\" rate of 28% is notably higher than in England and Wales (~7-13%), possibly because US burglars face higher risk of armed confrontation and still proceed. Apartment burglary dynamics differ from single-family homes; multi-unit buildings with 10+ units had lower rates (8/1,000 vs ~20+/1,000 for detached homes).\n",
  "quality_score": {
    "d1": 5,
    "d2": 5,
    "d3": 5,
    "d4": 4,
    "d5": 3,
    "d6": 5,
    "d7": 4,
    "d8": 5,
    "avg": 4.5,
    "scored_by": "claude-code-8d",
    "scored_at": "2026-05-25",
    "methodology_version": "1.2"
  },
  "reviewer": "quality-review-agent",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-04-22",
  "reviewed": true,
  "generated_at": "2026-04-22",
  "image": {
    "alt": "A front door with a simple lock and a welcome mat, viewed from outside at dusk, flat vector illustration in muted tones."
  },
  "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/",
  "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single",
  "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/home-burglary"
}