{
  "slug": "food-poisoning-death",
  "question": "What are the odds of dying from food poisoning?",
  "category": "food",
  "tags": [
    "food"
  ],
  "no_reliable_estimate": false,
  "perceived": {
    "description": "Food poisoning is one of those fears that lives almost entirely in the aftermath of the last bad meal. Most people have had a memorable bout of it, most assume \"worst case I spend a night on the bathroom floor,\" and very few associate the words with a death certificate. There is no good survey of what fraction of US adults believe foodborne illness could kill them, so the best we can say is that the perceived tail risk is usually treated as effectively zero for healthy adults.\n",
    "rough_estimate": "50% of US adults rank foodborne illness among their top-3 food safety concerns",
    "kind": "survey",
    "survey_source": {
      "title": "IFIC 2025 Food & Health Survey — 50% of US adults rank foodborne illness (E. coli, Salmonella, Listeria) as a top-3 food safety concern",
      "publisher": "International Food Information Council (IFIC)",
      "url": "https://ific.org/media/confidence-in-food-safety-hits-record-low/",
      "year": 2025
    }
  },
  "native": {
    "display": "~3,000 US foodborne illness deaths per year",
    "numerator": 1,
    "denominator": 110000,
    "unit": "per year",
    "population": "US residents, all ages, domestically acquired foodborne illness"
  },
  "normalized": {
    "lifetime_us_adult": 0.000537,
    "display": "1 in ~1,860 lifetime (US adult)",
    "log_value": -3.27,
    "assumptions": "Uses the CDC / Scallan et al. 2011 central estimate of ~3,000 US deaths per year from domestically acquired foodborne illness (known pathogens plus unspecified agents), against a US population of ~330 million, giving an annual rate of roughly 9.1 per million (≈ 0.91 per 100,000). Compounded over 59 years of remaining adult life: 1 - (1 - 9.1e-6)^59 ≈ 5.37e-4, or about 1 in 1,860. The uncertainty band is wide because Scallan's methodology imputes heavily from under-reported case data — the published 90% credible interval on the combined death estimate spans roughly 1,000-5,600 deaths per year. Excludes allergic reactions, deliberate poisoning, and non-foodborne gastrointestinal infections.\n",
    "uncertainty": {
      "low": 0.00018,
      "high": 0.001
    },
    "scope": "us_adult_lifetime"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/17/1/p1-1101_article",
      "title": "Foodborne Illness Acquired in the United States — Major Pathogens",
      "publisher": "CDC Emerging Infectious Diseases / Scallan et al.",
      "source_type": "peer_reviewed",
      "statistic": "31 major pathogens cause ~9.4 million illnesses, ~56,000 hospitalizations, and ~1,351 deaths per year in the US",
      "excerpt": "\"We estimated that 31 pathogens acquired in the United States caused 9.4 million episodes of foodborne illness (90% credible interval [CrI] 6.6–12.7 million), 55,961 hospitalizations (90% CrI 39,534–75,741), and 1,351 deaths (90% CrI 712–2,268) each year.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2011-01-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-11",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260420041128/https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/17/1/p1-1101_article",
      "calculation_notes": "This is the \"known pathogens\" half of Scallan 2011. The companion paper on unspecified agents adds another ~1,686 deaths/year, bringing the combined total to ~3,037 deaths/year — the figure CDC cites publicly as \"~3,000 US deaths per year from foodborne illness.\" We use the combined total for the normalized lifetime calculation.\n",
      "independence_note": "Scallan et al. (2011a) is the companion paper to Scallan et al. (2011b); they partition foodborne illness into known-pathogen vs unspecified-agent components from the same CDC FoodNet and outbreak surveillance data."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/17/1/p2-1101_article",
      "title": "Foodborne Illness Acquired in the United States — Unspecified Agents",
      "publisher": "CDC Emerging Infectious Diseases / Scallan et al.",
      "source_type": "peer_reviewed",
      "statistic": "Unspecified agents add ~38.4 million illnesses, ~71,878 hospitalizations, and ~1,686 deaths per year; combined total ~47.8 million illnesses, ~127,839 hospitalizations, ~3,037 deaths",
      "excerpt": "\"We estimated that acute gastroenteritis caused 179 million episodes annually. After adjusting for non-foodborne transmission [...] and for acute, nongastroenteritis illness, an estimated 38.4 million (90% CrI 19.8–61.2 million) episodes of domestically acquired foodborne illness from unspecified agents occurred annually, resulting in 71,878 hospitalizations (90% CrI 9,924–157,340) and 1,686 deaths (90% CrI 369–3,338). Overall, we estimated that each year 47.8 million episodes of domestically acquired foodborne illness occur, resulting in 127,839 hospitalizations and 3,037 deaths.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2011-01-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-11",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260413172029/https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/17/1/p2-1101_article",
      "calculation_notes": "The combined ~3,037 deaths/year is the basis for the normalized figure. 3,037 / 3.3e8 ≈ 9.2 per million per year. Over 59 adult-remaining years: 1 - (1 - 9.2e-6)^59 ≈ 5.4e-4, or about 1 in 1,850. Rounded to 5.37e-4 (1 in 1,860). The 90% CrI on the unspecified-agents death estimate alone (369–3,338) is nearly an order of magnitude wide, which is why our normalized uncertainty band stretches from roughly 1 in 5,500 to 1 in 1,000 lifetime.\n",
      "independence_note": "The two Scallan 2011 papers are companion pieces from the same author team and methodology — they are not independent estimates of the same quantity, they are complementary partitions of the total burden (known pathogens + unspecified agents).\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/food-safety/about/index.html",
      "title": "About Food Safety",
      "publisher": "US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "CDC estimates 48 million illnesses, 128,000 hospitalizations, and 3,000 deaths per year from foodborne illness in the US",
      "excerpt": "\"CDC estimates that each year 48 million people get sick from a foodborne illness, 128,000 are hospitalized, and 3,000 die.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-01-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-11",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260329223244/https://www.cdc.gov/food-safety/about/index.html",
      "calculation_notes": "CDC's public-facing page restates the Scallan 2011 totals as round numbers. This is the canonical figure cited in policy and press. Used here to confirm that the ~3,000/year estimate remains the current CDC headline fifteen years after publication, not as an independent estimate.\n",
      "independence_note": "Derived directly from Scallan 2011 — treat as confirmation of continuing use, not as an independent data point.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/food-safety",
      "title": "Food Safety — Fact Sheet",
      "publisher": "World Health Organization",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "Globally, an estimated 600 million foodborne illnesses and 420,000 deaths annually; children under 5 account for 125,000 deaths",
      "excerpt": "\"An estimated 600 million — almost 1 in 10 people in the world — fall ill after eating contaminated food and 420 000 die every year [...] Children under 5 years of age carry 40% of the foodborne disease burden, with 125 000 deaths every year.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-05-30",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-11",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260420041201/https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/food-safety",
      "calculation_notes": "WHO's 420,000 global deaths / ~8 billion population ≈ 5.3 per 100,000 per year, roughly 6x the US per-capita rate. The gap reflects the concentration of foodborne mortality in low- and middle-income countries with less developed cold chains, sanitation, and clinical care. Used as an order-of-magnitude cross-check and to frame that the US number is an optimistic baseline relative to the global picture.\n",
      "independence_note": "WHO's Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) estimates are methodologically adjacent to the Scallan approach and share some input data — treat as related-but-not-identical rather than fully independent.\n"
    }
  ],
  "comparison_anchors": [
    {
      "label": "Death by drowning (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.000725
    },
    {
      "label": "Death in a plane crash (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.000017
    },
    {
      "label": "Death in a car crash (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0108
    }
  ],
  "personal_factor_multipliers": [
    {
      "factor": "Age 65+",
      "multiplier": 5,
      "notes": "CDC FoodNet active surveillance data show adults 65+ have roughly 5× the foodborne illness hospitalization rate of 18–64 year-olds for priority pathogens (Salmonella, Listeria). Listeria case-fatality rates for seniors approach 20–30% vs ~2% for healthy young adults. Source: CDC FoodNet Surveillance Report (2021); Scallan et al. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2011."
    },
    {
      "factor": "Immunocompromised (transplant, chemotherapy, advanced HIV)",
      "multiplier": 100,
      "notes": "CDC estimates immunocompromised individuals face ~100× higher risk of invasive Listeriosis compared to the general population. Listeria monocytogenes is the leading foodborne killer in this group, with a case-fatality rate of ~20%. Source: CDC, 'Listeria (Listeriosis) — People at Risk' (2024); Scallan et al. (2011)."
    },
    {
      "factor": "Pregnancy",
      "multiplier": 10,
      "notes": "Pregnant women are approximately 10× more likely to develop Listeriosis than the general population, due to pregnancy-related immune suppression. Listeria infection during pregnancy carries ~22% fetal or neonatal mortality. Source: ACOG Practice Bulletin; CDC Listeria surveillance data (2024)."
    },
    {
      "factor": "Residence in or frequent exposure to care home / institutional setting",
      "multiplier": 3,
      "notes": "Institutional settings (nursing homes, long-term care facilities) account for a disproportionate share of multi-person foodborne illness outbreaks — CDC NORS data (2009–2018) show healthcare facilities contributed roughly 3× the per-person outbreak incidence vs households, driven by Norovirus and Salmonella. Source: CDC National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) Annual Reports."
    }
  ],
  "short_label": "Food poisoning (US)",
  "outcome_severity": "fatal",
  "exposure_pattern": "recurring",
  "outcome_type": "death",
  "valence": "negative",
  "caveats": "Excludes allergic reactions (anaphylaxis to food allergens is coded separately), deliberate poisoning, and gastrointestinal infections transmitted person-to-person or via water rather than food. The Scallan estimates are modeled from passive surveillance data with substantial under-reporting, so the true number could plausibly be anywhere in the low thousands to mid-five-thousands per year — the uncertainty band on the normalized figure reflects that. Risk is also highly heterogeneous: immunocompromised adults, pregnant women, adults over 65, and infants carry per-capita risks several times higher than the all-ages average, driven largely by Listeria, invasive Salmonella, and Toxoplasma.\n",
  "quality_score": {
    "d1": 5,
    "d2": 5,
    "d3": 5,
    "d4": 5,
    "d5": 5,
    "d6": 5,
    "d7": 5,
    "d8": 5,
    "avg": 5,
    "scored_by": "claude-code-8d",
    "scored_at": "2026-05-25",
    "methodology_version": "1.2"
  },
  "reviewer": "likelier-phase-5-agent",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-04-11",
  "reviewed": true,
  "generated_at": "2026-04-11",
  "image": {
    "alt": "A single muted ceramic plate viewed from above on a pale grey-blue background, flat vector illustration."
  },
  "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/",
  "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single",
  "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/food-poisoning-death"
}