{
  "slug": "femicide-intimate-partner",
  "question": "What are the odds of being killed by an intimate partner?",
  "category": "crime",
  "tags": [
    "relationships"
  ],
  "no_reliable_estimate": false,
  "perceived": {
    "description": "Intimate-partner homicide occupies a peculiar position in public risk perception. It is simultaneously the subject of intense advocacy attention and strikingly absent from standard crime-fear polls, which tend to ask about stranger violence. Most women, when asked informally, place their risk of being killed by a partner somewhere between \"negligible\" and \"something that happens to other people.\" Domestic-violence awareness campaigns, meanwhile, emphasise frequency and severity in ways that can make the risk feel omnipresent. Neither framing tracks the epidemiology particularly well.\n",
    "rough_estimate": "Most women have no quantified estimate; advocacy framing suggests 'disturbingly common'",
    "kind": "intuition"
  },
  "native": {
    "display": "~0.96 per 100,000 women per year",
    "numerator": 96,
    "denominator": 10000000,
    "unit": "per year",
    "population": "US women, all ages, 2018-2021 average (CDC NVDRS)"
  },
  "normalized": {
    "lifetime_us_adult": 0.000566,
    "display": "~1 in 1,770 over an adult lifetime (US woman)",
    "log_value": -3.25,
    "assumptions": "CDC MMWR (August 2024) reports intimate-partner homicide rates among US women of 0.97 per 100,000 (2018-2019) and 0.95 per 100,000 (2020-2021), averaging ~0.96 per 100,000 per year. BJS separately finds that 34% of the ~4,970 female murder victims in 2021 were killed by intimate partners, yielding ~1,690 IPH deaths that year — consistent with the NVDRS rate applied to the ~175 million US female population. Compounded over 59 years of adult life: 1 − (1 − 9.6e-6)^59 ≈ 5.66e-4, or roughly 1 in 1,770. This is a population average across all US women regardless of relationship status. The uncertainty band reflects both measurement variation (NVDRS vs. BJS figures differ slightly) and year-to-year fluctuation. For US men, the intimate- partner homicide rate is roughly one-fifth the female rate.\n",
    "uncertainty": {
      "low": 0.0004,
      "high": 0.00085
    },
    "scope": "us_adult_lifetime"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7334a4.htm",
      "title": "Notes from the Field: Intimate Partner Homicide Among Women — United States, 2018–2021",
      "publisher": "CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR)",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "3,991 female victims of intimate partner homicide, 2018-2021; rates of 0.97 per 100,000 (2018-2019) and 0.95 per 100,000 (2020-2021)",
      "excerpt": "\"During 2018–2021, a total of 3,991 female victims of intimate partner homicide were identified [...] Rates of intimate partner homicide during 2018–2019 (0.97 per 100,000) and 2020–2021 (0.95) were not significantly different.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-08-29",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-18",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260420040315/https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7334a4.htm",
      "calculation_notes": "Primary native figure: ~0.96 per 100,000 women per year (average of 2018-2019 and 2020-2021 periods). 3,991 victims over 4 years ≈ 998 per year. Compounded: 1 − (1 − 9.6e-6)^59 ≈ 5.66e-4. The NVDRS covered 48 states plus DC by 2021, providing near-national coverage.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://bjs.ojp.gov/female-murder-victims-and-victim-offender-relationship-2021",
      "title": "Female Murder Victims and Victim-Offender Relationship, 2021",
      "publisher": "Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS)",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "34% of ~4,970 female murder victims in 2021 were killed by an intimate partner; 76% were killed by someone known to them",
      "excerpt": "\"Of the estimated 4,970 female victims of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter in 2021, 34% were killed by an intimate partner [...] About 6% of the 17,970 males murdered that year were victims of intimate partner homicide.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2022-11-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-18",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260420040343/https://bjs.ojp.gov/female-murder-victims-and-victim-offender-relationship-2021",
      "calculation_notes": "34% of 4,970 ≈ 1,690 female IPH victims in 2021. Applied to ~175 million US females: 1,690 / 175,000,000 ≈ 9.66 per million ≈ 0.97 per 100,000. Cross-checks the NVDRS rate to within rounding. The 6% figure for males (≈1,078 male IPH victims) confirms the strong gender disparity: women are ~5x more likely to be killed by an intimate partner per unit of population.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10933122/",
      "title": "Femicide in the United States: a call for legal codification and national surveillance",
      "publisher": "Injury Epidemiology / BMC (peer-reviewed)",
      "source_type": "peer_reviewed",
      "statistic": "Approximately half of all female homicides in the US are intimate-partner-related; firearms used in approximately two-thirds of cases",
      "excerpt": "\"Femicide accounts for a significant proportion of female homicides in the United States, with intimate partner violence being the leading context [...] Firearms are the predominant weapon used in femicides.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-03-11",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-18",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260420040522/https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10933122/",
      "calculation_notes": "Provides broader framing and confirms that IPV-related homicide constitutes the largest single category of female homicide in the US. The \"approximately half\" figure is higher than BJS's 34% because this study uses a broader definition that includes ex-partners and dating partners more comprehensively. Used for contextual cross-check, not for the primary rate calculation.\n"
    }
  ],
  "comparison_anchors": [
    {
      "label": "Homicide from any cause (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00348
    },
    {
      "label": "Death in a car crash (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0108
    },
    {
      "label": "Death by lightning strike (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00000354
    },
    {
      "label": "Death in a plane crash (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.000017
    }
  ],
  "personal_factor_multipliers": [
    {
      "factor": "Black women",
      "multiplier": 3,
      "notes": "CDC MMWR: Black women constituted ~13% of the population but ~30% of IPH victims during 2018-2021; the disparity widened during 2020-2021"
    },
    {
      "factor": "women aged 18-44 vs. all ages",
      "multiplier": 1.8,
      "notes": "Reproductive-age women have higher IPH rates than older women; risk concentrates during peak relationship-formation years"
    },
    {
      "factor": "recent separation from partner",
      "multiplier": 5,
      "notes": "Multiple studies identify the separation period as the highest-risk window for IPH; risk is elevated for months to a year after leaving"
    },
    {
      "factor": "male victim",
      "multiplier": 0.2,
      "notes": "BJS 2021: ~6% of male murders were by intimate partners vs 34% of female murders; per-capita male IPH rate is roughly one-fifth the female rate"
    },
    {
      "factor": "household with firearms",
      "multiplier": 2.5,
      "notes": "Firearms were used in ~67% of IPH cases (CDC MMWR); access to firearms in the home is a well-documented risk factor for IPH"
    }
  ],
  "short_label": "Intimate-partner homicide",
  "myth_framing": "underrated",
  "outcome_severity": "fatal",
  "exposure_pattern": "recurring",
  "outcome_type": "mental_trauma",
  "valence": "negative",
  "caveats": "The headline number is a population average across all US women regardless of relationship status, age, or demographics. It therefore understates the risk for women in abusive relationships and overstates it for women who are not in relationships or who have low-risk partnerships. The strongest individual predictor of IPH is a prior history of intimate-partner violence in the relationship. The gender disparity is stark — roughly 5:1 female-to-male — but male victims of IPH do exist and are likely undercounted due to reporting barriers. Racial disparities are substantial and persistent: Black women face approximately 3x the IPH rate of White women. The period immediately following separation from an abusive partner is the single highest-risk window, which complicates simplistic \"just leave\" advice. Firearms are present in roughly two-thirds of IPH cases, and state-level firearm access laws correlate with IPH rates in ecological analyses. The NVDRS data used here covered 48 states plus DC by 2021 but was not fully national in the earlier years of the 2018-2021 window. This entry complements the general homicide-us entry by focusing on the intimate-partner subset and its distinctive risk profile.\n",
  "quality_score": {
    "d1": 5,
    "d2": 5,
    "d3": 5,
    "d4": 4,
    "d5": 2,
    "d6": 5,
    "d7": 4,
    "d8": 5,
    "avg": 4.375,
    "scored_by": "claude-code-8d",
    "scored_at": "2026-05-25",
    "methodology_version": "1.2"
  },
  "reviewer": "quality-review-agent",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-04-19",
  "reviewed": true,
  "generated_at": "2026-04-18",
  "image": {
    "alt": "A closed door with a thin shadow across the threshold against a muted background, flat vector illustration."
  },
  "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/",
  "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single",
  "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/femicide-intimate-partner"
}