{
  "slug": "deportation-us-undocumented",
  "question": "What are the odds of being deported if undocumented in the US?",
  "category": "other",
  "no_reliable_estimate": false,
  "perceived": {
    "description": "Immigration enforcement is among the most politically charged topics in the US, and the fear of deportation dominates the lived experience of undocumented residents. Surveys of undocumented immigrants consistently find that a majority report significant anxiety about removal, with the Pew Research Center noting that roughly two-thirds of unauthorized immigrants who have lived in the US for a decade or more say they worry \"a lot\" or \"some\" about deportation. Media coverage of ICE raids amplifies the perception that enforcement is pervasive, even though the annual removal rate relative to the total undocumented population has historically been low in percentage terms.\n",
    "rough_estimate": "~1 in 3 to 1 in 5 over a lifetime, intuitively",
    "kind": "intuition"
  },
  "native": {
    "display": "~1 in 50 per year (central estimate, ~250,000 removals / ~13 million undocumented)",
    "numerator": 250000,
    "denominator": 13000000,
    "unit": "per year",
    "population": "Undocumented immigrants residing in the US (~11-14 million)"
  },
  "normalized": {
    "lifetime_us_adult": 0.55,
    "display": "~55% over a notional 40-year residency horizon",
    "log_value": -0.26,
    "assumptions": "ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations reports roughly 142,000 formal removals in FY2023 and ~271,000 in FY2024, with FY2025 on track for ~320,000. Adding CBP removals at the border and interior voluntary departures, total annual removals of undocumented persons have ranged from roughly 150,000 (Biden-era low) to 400,000+ (Obama peak, projected Trump-era high). The undocumented population stood at roughly 11 million (DHS 2022 estimate) to 14 million (Pew 2023 revised estimate). Using a central annual removal rate of ~250,000 against a midpoint population of ~13 million gives an annual per-person hazard of ~1.9%, or roughly 1 in 50. Compounded over a notional 40-year adult residency horizon: 1 - (1 - 0.019)^40 ≈ 0.55, or ~55%. This is a crude population average; individual risk varies by orders of magnitude depending on criminal history, geographic location, and the political administration in power.\n",
    "uncertainty": {
      "low": 0.2,
      "high": 0.85
    },
    "scope": "subgroup_lifetime"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.ice.gov/news/releases/ice-releases-fiscal-year-2023-annual-report",
      "title": "ICE Releases Fiscal Year 2023 Annual Report",
      "publisher": "U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "142,580 formal removals in FY2023; over 1 million total removals and expulsions including Title 42",
      "excerpt": "\"ERO conducted 142,580 removals and 62,545 Title 42 expulsions to more than 170 countries worldwide in Fiscal Year 2023.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-03-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-18",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260405003525/https://www.ice.gov/news/releases/ice-releases-fiscal-year-2023-annual-report",
      "calculation_notes": "ICE ERO's FY2023 formal removals (142,580) represent the floor of annual deportation activity. Adding Title 42 expulsions and CBP removals raises the total substantially. For the native figure, I use a central estimate of ~250,000 annual removals (blending FY2023 and FY2024 data, excluding Title 42 expulsions which ended May 2023) against a midpoint undocumented population of ~13 million. Annual hazard: 250,000 / 13,000,000 ≈ 0.019. Over 40 years: 1 - (1 - 0.019)^40 ≈ 0.55.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2025/08/21/u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-population-reached-a-record-14-million-in-2023/",
      "title": "U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population Reached a Record 14 Million in 2023",
      "publisher": "Pew Research Center",
      "source_type": "reputable_reference",
      "statistic": "Estimated 14 million unauthorized immigrants in the US as of mid-2023, up from 10.5 million in 2021",
      "excerpt": "\"Between 2021 and 2023, the number of unauthorized immigrants living in the United States grew from an estimated 10.5 million to 14 million.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2025-08-21",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-18",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260420034621/https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2025/08/21/u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-population-reached-a-record-14-million-in-2023/",
      "calculation_notes": "Pew's revised estimate of 14 million (mid-2023) is the highest credible estimate of the denominator. DHS's own estimate for January 2022 was 10.99 million. The midpoint of ~13 million is used for the native rate calculation. A larger denominator reduces the per-person annual hazard; a smaller one increases it — hence the wide uncertainty band.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://ohss.dhs.gov/topics/immigration/immigration-enforcement/monthly-tables",
      "title": "Immigration Enforcement and Legal Processes Monthly Tables",
      "publisher": "DHS Office of Homeland Security Statistics",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "FY2024 total removals ~271,000; FY2025 ~320,000; historical range from ~150,000 to 400,000+ per year",
      "excerpt": "\"FY2025 ended with 319,980 total removals; FY2024 ended with 248,739. At current daily pace, FY2026 is on track to exceed 460,000 removals.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2026-03-31",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-18",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260405012437/https://ohss.dhs.gov/topics/immigration/immigration-enforcement/monthly-tables",
      "calculation_notes": "The DHS monthly tables provide the most current removal data. The year-to-year swing is enormous: from ~143,000 in FY2023 to a projected ~460,000 in FY2026. This 3x variation drives the wide uncertainty band (20%-85% lifetime). The central estimate of 250,000/year is a rough average across recent administrations; under aggressive enforcement, the annual hazard could double.\n"
    }
  ],
  "comparison_anchors": [
    {
      "label": "Being audited by the IRS (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.1
    },
    {
      "label": "Experiencing bankruptcy (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.08
    },
    {
      "label": "Being a victim of violent crime (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.25
    }
  ],
  "personal_factor_multipliers": [
    {
      "factor": "Prior criminal conviction",
      "multiplier": 5,
      "notes": "ICE prioritizes individuals with criminal records; removal rates for this subgroup are far higher"
    },
    {
      "factor": "Long-term resident, no criminal record, interior US",
      "multiplier": 0.15,
      "notes": "Interior enforcement historically targets a small fraction of the total undocumented population; many long-term residents have near-zero removal probability in practice"
    },
    {
      "factor": "Recent border crosser",
      "multiplier": 3,
      "notes": "Individuals encountered at or near the border face much higher immediate removal rates"
    },
    {
      "factor": "Enforcement-heavy administration (e.g. early Obama, Trump)",
      "multiplier": 1.8,
      "notes": "Annual removals can roughly double depending on executive enforcement priorities"
    }
  ],
  "short_label": "Deportation (undocumented)",
  "myth_framing": "calibrated",
  "outcome_severity": "serious_harm",
  "exposure_pattern": "recurring",
  "outcome_type": "autonomy_loss",
  "valence": "negative",
  "caveats": "This entry attempts to average across administrations, criminal history profiles, geographic locations, and duration of residence — each of which can shift individual risk by an order of magnitude or more. The \"40-year residency horizon\" is a modeling convenience; many undocumented immigrants do not remain for four decades, and many who do have effectively zero removal risk because interior enforcement has historically concentrated on individuals with criminal records. The population denominator is itself uncertain by ±3 million. Under maximalist enforcement policies, the annual removal rate could approach 3-4% of the undocumented population; under minimalist interior enforcement, it drops below 1%. The uncertainty band reflects this political volatility more than statistical noise.\n",
  "quality_score": {
    "d1": 5,
    "d2": 5,
    "d3": 4,
    "d4": 4,
    "d5": 5,
    "d6": 5,
    "d7": 4,
    "d8": 5,
    "avg": 4.625,
    "scored_by": "claude-code-8d",
    "scored_at": "2026-05-25",
    "methodology_version": "1.2"
  },
  "reviewer": "quality-review-agent",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-04-19",
  "reviewed": true,
  "generated_at": "2026-04-18",
  "image": {
    "alt": "A suitcase sitting alone on a porch, flat vector illustration, muted tones, no people."
  },
  "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/",
  "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single",
  "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/deportation-us-undocumented"
}