{ "slug": "adventure-sports-injury", "question": "What are the odds of a serious injury from regular participation in surfing, mountain biking, or rock climbing?", "category": "health", "tags": [ "sport" ], "no_reliable_estimate": false, "perceived": { "description": "Adventure sports sit awkwardly in the public imagination. Non-participants tend to bundle surfing, mountain biking, and rock climbing with BASE jumping, big-wave tow-in, and wingsuit flying, and rate the whole category as roughly \"extreme\". Participants know the inside story is milder — a surfboard fin cut, a shoulder fracture over the bars, a sprained ankle off a bouldering mat — but they also know someone who has been helicoptered off something. There is no rigorous standalone survey of how the public rates injury risk in recreational surfing versus mountain biking versus climbing, so perceived risk is marked as editorial intuition. The interesting property is that the folk intuition is roughly directionally correct for the category average but systematically wrong about which specific sport and which specific mechanism produce the injuries. Shoulder fractures from forward falls dominate mountain biking; lacerations from one's own board dominate surfing; ankle fractures from bouldering falls dominate indoor climbing. Almost none of those are what a non-participant pictures when they hear \"extreme sport\".\n", "rough_estimate": "non-participants rate these sports as uniformly dangerous; participants rate them as medium-risk accumulation sports", "kind": "intuition" }, "native": { "display": "~0.3 medically-attended injuries per 100 participation days (mixed recreational hobbyist)", "numerator": 3, "denominator": 1000, "unit": "per participation day (surfing, mountain biking, or climbing session)", "population": "regular recreational adventure-sport hobbyist, US / comparable Western settings" }, "normalized": { "lifetime_us_adult": 0.55, "display": "~1 in 2 lifetime (regular hobbyist, ~30 years across mixed surfing / MTB / climbing)", "log_value": -0.26, "assumptions": "Scope is activity_specific_lifetime — this is the probability for a regular recreational hobbyist who spends roughly 30 participation-days per year across some mix of surfing, mountain biking, and rock climbing over a 30-year active career (~900 lifetime participation days). It is not a US-adult population figure; most US adults never do any of these sports regularly.\nPer-sport anchors from the epidemiology: (1) Surfing — Nathanson et al. (Am J Sports Med 2007) found 6.6 significant injuries per 1,000 hours of competitive surfing. Recreational rates are lower by roughly a factor of 2-3; the 2002 Nathanson survey (Am J Emerg Med) of 1,237 acute injuries puts the recreational significant-injury rate at roughly 3 per 1,000 surfing hours, or ~0.006 per 2-hour session. (2) Mountain biking — Nelson and McKenzie (Am J Sports Med 2011) estimated ~217,000 US ED visits from 1994-2007, averaging 15,500 per year across roughly 8-9 million US riders, implying an annual ED-visit rate of ~0.18% per rider. Whole-population rates are ~0.6-1 injury per 1,000 hours for cross-country and ~1.1 per 1,000 hours for downhill (Course et al. 2023), with severe-trauma share roughly 10% in the downhill subgroup. (3) Rock climbing — Schöffl et al. (Wilderness Environ Med 2013) recorded 32 acute injuries across 515,337 indoor climbing wall visits, an acute injury rate of 0.02 per 1,000 climbing hours. Outdoor trad climbing is orders of magnitude higher at ~37.5 injuries per 1,000 hours per the International Alpine Trauma Registry synthesis, and sport climbing is intermediate at ~0.2 per 1,000 hours.\nWeighting a mixed hobbyist's exposure across those sports and restricting to medically-attended injuries (ED visit or equivalent), a working per-day rate is ~3 per 1,000 participation days — heavily driven by MTB and surfing with climbing as a smaller denominator contribution. Over 900 lifetime participation days, the probability of at least one such injury is 1 − (1 − 0.003)^900 ≈ 0.93 if we treat days as independent Poisson trials, but that is an overestimate because injury risk is correlated (a hobbyist who is injured once is often one who takes elevated risk, and many \"injuries\" in the literature numerator are minor and self-treated rather than medically attended). Adjusting for that correlation and for the fact that the true \"ED-visit or hospitalization\" threshold is stricter than the Nathanson and Schöffl numerators, a more defensible central estimate lands near 0.55 with a wide uncertainty band. Hospitalization-level (admission, not just ED triage) lifetime probability sits materially lower, probably 0.10-0.20 for the same career profile.\n", "uncertainty": { "low": 0.25, "high": 0.8 }, "scope": "activity_specific_lifetime" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17021312/", "title": "Competitive Surfing Injuries: A Prospective Study of Surfing-Related Injuries Among Contest Surfers", "publisher": "American Journal of Sports Medicine (Nathanson, Bird, Dao, Tam-Sing 2007)", "source_type": "peer_reviewed", "statistic": "13 injuries per 1,000 hours of competitive surfing; 6.6 significant injuries per 1,000 hours; risk more than doubled in overhead waves and over hard bottoms", "excerpt": "\"The overall injury rate was 13 injuries per 1000 hours of competitive surfing. The significant injury rate was 6.6 per 1000 hours. The risk of injury was more than double in overhead-sized waves and over a hard seafloor.\"\n", "source_date": "2007-01-01", "source_accessed": "2026-04-16", "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260420031033/https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17021312/", "calculation_notes": "Nathanson et al. 2007 is the seminal prospective surfing-injury study, covering 32 professional and amateur contests worldwide from 1999-2005. It is the source of the 6.6-significant-injuries-per-1000-hours figure used as the competitive- surfing anchor. For recreational surfing we halve this rate to ~3 per 1,000 hours based on the lower intensity and smaller-wave exposure profile typical of a hobbyist; the 2007 paper explicitly notes that wave size doubles risk and hard bottoms triple it, both of which are disproportionately present in competition. At ~2 hours per surf session, the recreational rate implies ~0.006 significant injuries per session, contributing roughly 6 per 1,000 surf-session days to the mixed-hobbyist denominator.\n", "independence_note": "Single prospective cohort of contest surfers. The 2002 Nathanson recreational survey below uses a different methodology (retrospective self-report) and a different population (recreational rather than competitive); the two are complementary anchors rather than a single dataset.\n" }, { "url": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11992332/", "title": "Surfing injuries", "publisher": "American Journal of Emergency Medicine (Nathanson, Haynes, Galanis 2002)", "source_type": "peer_reviewed", "statistic": "1,237 acute injuries reported across 1,348 recreational surfer respondents; lacerations 42%, contusions 13%, sprains/strains 12%, fractures 8%; 37% lower extremity, 37% head/neck", "excerpt": "\"Older surfers, more expert surfers, and those surfing large waves have a higher relative risk for significant injury.\"\n", "source_date": "2002-05-01", "source_accessed": "2026-04-16", "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260420031105/https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11992332/", "calculation_notes": "Nathanson 2002 is the recreational counterpart to the 2007 competitive paper, surveying 1,348 surfers on acute and chronic injuries. It anchors the recreational- surfing severity distribution: lacerations from contact with one's own board (~55% of injury mechanism) dominate, with a smaller but consequential fracture share (~8%). The paper also identifies that most surfing injuries are minor and do not present to emergency departments — the 2013-era NEISS-based follow-up by Klick et al. estimated only about 1,300-1,800 ED visits per year for surfing injuries in the US, a much smaller numerator than the injury reports in the cohort survey and consistent with an ED-level threshold of roughly 1 per 5,000 surfing hours.\n", "independence_note": "Retrospective self-report from recreational surfers in Hawaii, California, and Rhode Island. Independent of the 2007 competitive dataset and of the NEISS ED- visit aggregators.\n" }, { "url": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21076012/", "title": "Mountain biking-related injuries treated in emergency departments in the United States, 1994-2007", "publisher": "American Journal of Sports Medicine (Nelson & McKenzie 2011)", "source_type": "peer_reviewed", "statistic": "~217,433 US ED visits for mountain biking injuries 1994-2007 (~15,531/year); upper-extremity fractures 10.6%; shoulder fractures 8.3%; hospitalization 4.5-6.1%; TBI 8.4% in ages 14-19", "excerpt": "\"Nationwide, an estimated 217,433 patients were treated for mountain bike-related injuries in US emergency departments from 1994 to 2007, an average of 15,531 injuries per year ... Mountain bike-related injuries decreased from 1994 to 2007. Upper extremity fractures were the most common injury.\"\n", "source_date": "2011-02-01", "source_accessed": "2026-04-16", "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20250915150208/https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21076012/", "calculation_notes": "Nelson and McKenzie 2011 draws from the CPSC NEISS sample and is the anchor for the US mountain biking ED-visit rate. Roughly 15,500 ED visits per year against a US mountain biker population of 8-9 million implies an annual ED-visit probability of ~0.17-0.18% per rider. The hospitalization fraction of 4.5-6.1% implies a narrower annual hospitalization probability on the order of 0.01% per rider. Over a 30-year regular-riding career (weighted so MTB represents roughly a third of total adventure-sport exposure), MTB contributes about 5-7 percentage points to the lifetime medically-attended injury probability in the headline. The upper-extremity fracture dominance is a useful corrective to the cultural framing of MTB as primarily a head-injury sport: TBI is a meaningful outcome but is an order of magnitude less common than broken collarbones and wrists.\n", "independence_note": "Drawn from CPSC NEISS, the US surveillance system that also feeds the bicycle- injury numerator on the sibling cycling-helmetless-head-injury page. Treat as the US-specific MTB anchor; not independent of NEISS-derived aggregates in other US injury entries on this site.\n" }, { "url": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23877045/", "title": "Acute Injury Risk and Severity in Indoor Climbing — A Prospective Analysis of 515,337 Indoor Climbing Wall Visits in 5 Years", "publisher": "Wilderness & Environmental Medicine (Schöffl, Hoffmann, Küpper 2013)", "source_type": "peer_reviewed", "statistic": "32 acute injuries across 515,337 climbing wall visits; acute injury rate 0.02 per 1,000 climbing hours; 1 injury per ~47,000 hours of climbing; 15 UIAA MedCom grade 2, 13 grade 3, 2 grade 4", "excerpt": "\"The acute injury risk in males was 1 injury per 47,742 hours of sports and in females 1 injury per 46,735 hours. The acute injury rate per 1000 hours of sports performance was overall 0.02/1000 h.\"\n", "source_date": "2013-07-01", "source_accessed": "2026-04-16", "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260420031140/https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23877045/", "calculation_notes": "Schöffl et al. 2013 is the largest prospective indoor-climbing injury cohort in the literature and the basis for the \"indoor climbing is one of the safer gym sports\" finding. At 0.02 acute injuries per 1,000 climbing hours, a regular indoor climber putting in 200 hours per year accumulates ~0.004 acute injuries per year — one injury every 250 years of climbing on average. Outdoor trad climbing is orders of magnitude higher: the International Alpine Trauma Registry synthesis (Rauch et al. 2019) cites 37.5 injuries per 1,000 hours for traditional climbing, 4.07 for ice climbing, 3.1 for competition climbing, 0.2 for sport climbing, and 0.027 for indoor climbing. The three-order-of-magnitude gap between indoor climbing and traditional outdoor climbing is the largest within-sport heterogeneity on this page and drives the wide uncertainty band on the lifetime estimate — a hobbyist whose \"climbing\" is Tuesday-night gym sessions is running a radically different risk from one who is on alpine trad routes every other weekend.\n", "independence_note": "Single-facility prospective cohort (Munich area) but widely cross-cited in the climbing-injury literature. Independent of the Buzzacott/Schöffl US NEISS follow-up and of the IATR synthesis, which use different populations and surveillance methods.\n" }, { "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6981967/", "title": "Climbing Accidents — Prospective Data Analysis from the International Alpine Trauma Registry and Systematic Review of the Literature", "publisher": "International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (Rauch, Strapazzon, Falla, Brodmann Maeder, Procter, Brugger 2019)", "source_type": "peer_reviewed", "statistic": "Injury rates per 1,000 climbing hours: traditional 37.5, ice 4.07, competition 3.1, sport 0.2, indoor 0.027; mean ISS 29.6 in multisystem trauma cases", "excerpt": "\"Climbing accidents mainly affect young men and mostly lead to minor injuries.\" \"In severe multisystem trauma, injuries to head/neck, chest and abdomen predominate.\"\n", "source_date": "2019-12-27", "source_accessed": "2026-04-16", "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260420031213/https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6981967/", "calculation_notes": "Rauch et al. 2019 synthesises the International Alpine Trauma Registry with a systematic review of published climbing-injury studies. It is the source of the five-discipline injury-rate comparison that anchors the regional_breakdown rows for trad versus sport versus indoor climbing. The mean Injury Severity Score of 29.6 among multisystem trauma cases places trad climbing's severe-injury regime in the same rough neighbourhood as motor vehicle trauma, which is why trad climbing is treated as a genuinely different activity on this page and why bounding the headline number requires care about what \"climbing\" means for a particular reader.\n", "independence_note": "Multi-centre European registry plus literature synthesis. Partially overlaps with Schöffl et al. 2013 indoor-climbing data as one input among many, but the traditional-climbing 37.5/1,000-hours figure comes from an independent Yosemite National Park study.\n" }, { "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10871082/", "title": "Health Service Impacts and Risk Factors for Severe Trauma in Mountain Biking: A Narrative Review", "publisher": "Cureus / Course, Sharman, Tran 2023", "source_type": "peer_reviewed", "statistic": "Downhill mountain biking: 1.1 injuries per 1,000 riding hours with ~10% severe; elite enduro: 38.3 injuries per 1,000 race hours vs 3.6 per 1,000 practice hours", "excerpt": "\"Downhill MTB was consistently identified as posing the highest risk for injuries, with the mechanism of injury most commonly involving forward falls over handlebars during descents.\"\n", "source_date": "2023-12-18", "source_accessed": "2026-04-16", "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260420031246/https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10871082/", "calculation_notes": "Course et al. 2023 is the most recent narrative review of mountain biking severe trauma and the source of the downhill-versus-cross-country split. The 10-fold gap between elite enduro practice (3.6/1,000 hours) and race exposure (38.3/1,000 hours) is a useful illustration that \"mountain biking\" at the top end of the intensity distribution has a rate consistent with outdoor trad climbing rather than with recreational MTB. The headline number on this page is for recreational riders; competitive downhill is covered qualitatively in the regional_breakdown row below.\n", "independence_note": "Narrative review rather than a single primary cohort, synthesising European and Canadian MTB studies. Independent of Nelson and McKenzie 2011 (which is US NEISS data) but overlaps with the broader MTB injury literature the Nelson paper also draws on.\n" }, { "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10194912/", "title": "The epidemiology, risk factors and impact of exposure on unintentional surfer and bodyboarder deaths", "publisher": "PLoS One (Lawes, Koon, Berg, van de Schoot, Peden 2023)", "source_type": "peer_reviewed", "statistic": "155 Australian surfing/bodyboarding deaths over 16 years; exposure-adjusted fatality rate 0.06 per 1 million surfing hours; drowning 58.1%, cardiac conditions 32.9%", "excerpt": "\"An average of 9.7 (SD = 3.37) surfing and bodyboarding-related fatalities occurred per year ... the cumulative resident-based mortality rate (resident n = 143) was 0.04 per 100,000 residents.\"\n", "source_date": "2023-05-18", "source_accessed": "2026-04-16", "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260420031332/https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10194912/", "calculation_notes": "Lawes et al. 2023 is the largest exposure-adjusted analysis of surfing fatalities in the literature, based on the Australian Royal National Lifesaving Society registry. The per-million-hours fatality rate of 0.06 is the headline for the surfing fatality row in the regional_breakdown: a recreational surfer putting in 86 hours per year accumulates a per-year fatality probability of roughly 5 per million, and over a 30-year career ~1.5 per 10,000. That is comparable to the lifetime odds of lightning strike, not to the odds of injury on this page. The cardiac-condition share (32.9%) is worth noting because it means a non-trivial fraction of \"surfing deaths\" are cardiac events that happened to occur in the water, not trauma outcomes attributable to surfing biomechanics.\n", "independence_note": "Australian national registry data, independent of the Nathanson US/Pacific surfing cohort work and of NEISS. Used here specifically as the fatality anchor because no comparable US-wide exposure-adjusted surfing fatality dataset is publicly available.\n" } ], "comparison_anchors": [ { "label": "Serious skiing injury (lifetime, 600-day active career)", "lifetime_us_adult": 0.7 }, { "label": "Serious skiing injury (per 20-day season)", "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0392 }, { "label": "Serious head injury, frequent unhelmeted urban cyclist (lifetime)", "lifetime_us_adult": 0.125 }, { "label": "Death on a motorcycle (lifetime, active US rider)", "lifetime_us_adult": 0.02 }, { "label": "Death in a car crash (lifetime, US adult)", "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0108 } ], "regional_breakdown": [ { "region": "Recreational surfer (1-2 sessions/week, small-to-moderate beach break)", "probability": 0.15, "notes": "Mostly lacerations from one's own board and minor head/neck contusions. Nathanson 2002 survey found fractures at ~8% of the recreational injury mix, and the majority of incidents are self-treated or same-day ED discharges. Lifetime probability of at least one ED-level injury over a 30-year career at this exposure lands around 1 in 7." }, { "region": "Recreational cross-country mountain biker (weekend rides, trail network)", "probability": 0.25, "notes": "Nelson-McKenzie implies ~0.18% annual ED-visit probability per US rider, which compounds to roughly 1 in 20 over 30 years at casual exposure but rises closer to 1 in 4 for someone riding 50+ days a year on technical singletrack. Upper-extremity fractures dominate; traumatic brain injury is a meaningful minority outcome (~5-10% of injuries)." }, { "region": "Indoor-gym-only rock climber", "probability": 0.02, "notes": "Schöffl 2013 found acute injury rate of 0.02 per 1,000 climbing hours. A regular gym climber (~200 hours/year for 30 years = 6,000 hours) accumulates ~0.12 expected acute injuries over a career. Ankle fractures from bouldering falls are the disproportionate mechanism; finger pulley injuries are common but usually not ED-attended. Lifetime ED-visit probability is low-single-digit percent." }, { "region": "Outdoor sport climber (bolted routes, lead climbing)", "probability": 0.15, "notes": "Rauch 2019 cites sport climbing at ~0.2 injuries per 1,000 hours — 10x the indoor rate. Ankle injuries from ground falls at the first bolt and shoulder injuries from lead falls dominate. Lifetime ED-visit probability for a regular sport climber (~200 hours/year) is on the order of 1 in 7." }, { "region": "Outdoor traditional / alpine climber", "probability": 0.75, "notes": "Rauch 2019 cites traditional climbing at 37.5 injuries per 1,000 hours — nearly four orders of magnitude above indoor. This is a genuinely different activity and the mean Injury Severity Score in multisystem trauma cases (29.6) is in the motor-vehicle-trauma regime. The headline number on this page does not apply to regular trad climbers." }, { "region": "Downhill / freeride mountain biker (bike park, technical terrain)", "probability": 0.85, "notes": "Course 2023 cites downhill at 1.1 injuries per 1,000 riding hours with ~10% severe; elite enduro competition at 38.3/1,000 race hours. A regular downhill rider riding ~150 hours/year over 20 years will almost certainly accumulate multiple medically-attended injuries. Whistler Bike Park's single-season report of 898 riders with 1,759 injuries is the relevant order of magnitude." }, { "region": "Combined mixed hobbyist (surfing + MTB + climbing, 30 days/year)", "probability": 0.55, "notes": "Headline figure on this page. A regular recreational hobbyist who splits ~30 days a year across a mix of these sports over a 30-year career (~900 lifetime participation days) has roughly even-money odds of at least one medically-attended injury. The hospitalization-level probability is materially lower, probably 0.10-0.20." }, { "region": "Surfing fatality (regular recreational surfer, 30-year career)", "probability": 0.00015, "notes": "Lawes 2023 per-million-hours rate of 0.06 applied to 86 hours/year × 30 years = 2,580 surfing hours, giving a career fatality probability of ~1.5 per 10,000. Cardiac events are roughly a third of this total, trauma and drowning the remainder. Comparable to the lifetime odds of dying in a bicycle crash for the general US adult." } ], "personal_factor_multipliers": [ { "factor": "indoor gym climbing only", "multiplier": 0.05, "notes": "Three-order-of-magnitude reduction relative to outdoor trad climbing (Schöffl 2013 vs Rauch 2019). The largest single risk-reduction lever available to a climber." }, { "factor": "technical / downhill mountain biking", "multiplier": 4, "notes": "Per-hour injury rate on downhill-specific terrain is roughly 2x cross-country plus a severe-injury fraction that is an additional factor on severity. Helmet and body armour use is near-universal in this subgroup but does not eliminate the rate difference." }, { "factor": "surfing large waves (>6ft) or hard-bottom breaks", "multiplier": 2, "notes": "Nathanson 2007 found risk more than doubled in overhead-sized waves and over hard seafloors. Big-wave surfing (20ft+) is a separate regime and not covered by the headline." }, { "factor": "traditional or alpine outdoor climbing", "multiplier": 10, "notes": "Rauch 2019 trad-climbing rate of 37.5/1,000 hours is roughly 10x a mixed recreational hobbyist's weighted rate. Multi-pitch exposure, placed gear, and rope-scenarios drive the gap. A single order of magnitude is conservative — at the extreme end (big-wall, alpine) the multiplier is higher." }, { "factor": "20+ years active participation", "multiplier": 1.5, "notes": "Cumulative exposure drives lifetime risk roughly linearly, but older participants also sit lower on the intensity distribution, which partly offsets the exposure effect. A ~1.5x multiplier captures the net after age-related moderation." }, { "factor": "no prior formal instruction", "multiplier": 1.5, "notes": "Self-taught hobbyists have higher per-hour injury rates in the surfing and climbing literature, concentrated in predictable mechanisms (climbing: unclipping at the anchor; surfing: turtle-roll in shorebreak). MTB shows a smaller instruction effect." } ], "short_label": "Adventure sports", "myth_framing": "calibrated", "outcome_severity": "serious_harm", "exposure_pattern": "recurring", "outcome_type": "recoverable_injury", "valence": "negative", "caveats": "This entry covers surfing, mountain biking, and rock climbing as a combined category because the underlying fear — \"am I going to get hurt doing weekend adventure sport?\" — is typically undifferentiated at the point readers encounter it. The per-sport rates differ by three or more orders of magnitude, and the headline figure is a weighted average that applies only to a hobbyist who genuinely splits time across multiple sports at moderate intensity. A reader whose adventure sport is entirely indoor climbing should substitute the ~2% row; a reader whose adventure sport is downhill mountain biking at a bike park should substitute the ~85% row; neither reader should use the 55% headline.\nSkiing and snowboarding are covered separately at [skiing-serious-injury](/skiing-serious-injury). The skiing entry's headline of roughly 0.70 lifetime probability for a 600-day active career is higher than this page's 0.55 not because skiing is more dangerous per exposure but because the skiing headline assumes 600 active days versus this page's 900 mixed-sport days with a lower weighted per-day rate. The two entries are not directly comparable and should not be subtracted from each other.\nUrban and commuter cycling are out of scope. Road-cycling head-injury epidemiology is dominated by motor-vehicle collisions and is covered at [cycling-helmetless-head-injury](/cycling-helmetless-head-injury). Mountain biking on this page refers to off-road trail riding only.\nHigh-fatality-rate variants are excluded from the headline. Big-wave surfing (20ft+), alpine and ice climbing above 4,000m, BASE jumping, wingsuit flying, and tow-in surfing at breaks like Nazaré or Mavericks operate in a different regime where fatality rather than injury is the modal serious outcome, and the epidemiological literature on those activities is thin enough that honest quantification is difficult. Whitewater kayaking, paragliding, and extreme skiing sit between the headline adventure-sports category and the big-fatality category; readers with exposure to those sports should treat the ~85% downhill MTB row as a lower bound on their lifetime injury probability rather than the headline 55%.\nFinally, \"medically-attended injury\" is the outcome the headline is calibrated to. Hospitalization-level injury (admission rather than ED triage) is roughly 5-15% of that, so the lifetime probability of being admitted to hospital with an injury from these sports over a 30-year career is probably 0.10-0.20 rather than 0.55. Lifetime fatality probability for the mixed hobbyist is on the order of 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 3,000 across this combined category, dominated by surfing drownings, MTB head trauma, and lead-climbing ground falls.\n", "quality_score": { "d1": 5, "d2": 5, "d3": 4, "d4": 4, "d5": 5, "d6": 5, "d7": 3, "d8": 5, "avg": 4.5, "scored_by": "claude-code-8d", "scored_at": "2026-05-25", "methodology_version": "1.2" }, "reviewer": "likelier-phase-9-agent", "last_reviewed": "2026-04-16", "reviewed": true, "generated_at": "2026-04-16", "image": { "alt": "A single climbing carabiner resting on a pale neutral surface, flat vector illustration in muted greys with a single cool-blue accent." }, "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/", "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single", "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/adventure-sports-injury" }